Wednesday, 31 December, 2025 / Edition 91

On this last day of 2025, let’s revisit the most significant energy news from the past year.

I have based my selection of the “top 10 news items” on three factors:

1. Whether the news is trendsetting

2. Its impact

3. The size of the deal for M&A transactions

Have I missed something you would have included in your top 10? Let me know! Write me at editorial@aapg.org.

Shangyou Nie

Editor, Well Read

P.S. I will be attending AAPG's Subsurface Energy to Power Workshop on 7–8 January in Houston, Texas. I am co-chair for session 4, Business and Financing of Energy Projects. There's still time to register, and I hope to see you there!

Top 10 Upstream Energy News Developments in 2025

Hankimage9/Shutterstock.com

No. 1: Libya offers 22 blocks for bidding with 28 billion barrels of oil/gas resources. (Well Read #49)

• Why it matters: This is the largest offering by a major resource-holding country over the past decade.

• Since the news broke: The bid round is ongoing.

  • Libya’s National Oil Corp. said 29 companies have pre-qualified, including six from China and two from Russia.

  • BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil have all signed deals with Libya NOC for out-of-bid round assets.

• What’s next: How will sustained low oil prices impact the outcome of the bid round?

No 2. Chevron won the arbitration against ExxonMobil to close its acquisition of Hess. (Well Read #68)

• Why it matters: The world’s second largest IOC closed the valuation gap with its rival ExxonMobil, and opened a bigger lead over number two IOC, Shell.

• What’s next: What will be the newest battleground for the world’s number one and number two IOCs?

No. 3: TotalEnergies won the bid to spearhead oil development and production in Namibia with Galp. (Well Read #89).

• What happened: TotalEnergies won the tender to become the operator and 40 percent equal partner with Galp in the development of Namibia’s Mopane oil field.

  • TotalEnergies used in-country assets as swap currency to complete the deal: Galp became a minority interest holder in two TotalEnergies-operated blocks, including the Venus oil field.

• Why it matters: Namibia is on its way to becoming a significant oil producer as TotalEnergies is targeting FID for the Venus field in 2026.

No. 4: Shell starts production for Canada LNG. (Well Read #65)

• What happened: Shell and its partners Petronas, CNPC, Mitsubishi, and Korea Gas started first production for LNG Canada in June.

• Why it matters: Canada became the latest LNG supplier, with direct access to Asian customers across the Pacific. This has added significance as Canada and the United States are in the midst of a tariff war.

• What’s next: Canada has made LNG Canada Phase 2 one of its priority projects, aiming to double its capacity to 28 million tonnes per annum.

No. 5: Orsted struggles against headwinds for offshore wind development. (Well Read # 74)

• What happened: Danish offshore wind leader Orsted is fighting challenges including cost escalation and Trump’s executive orders.

  • The Trump Administration issued a stop-work order in August for the Orsted Revolution project in offshore Rhode Island. Orsted was allowed to resume work in September after a court reversed the order.

• Since the news: On 22 December, the Trump Administration issued another order to suspend federal leases for five offshore wind farm projects, citing national security concerns.

• Why it matters: Other than in Europe and China, where else could the offshore wind industry survive?

No. 6: The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management holds its first offshore lease sale in two years. (Well Read #89)

• What happened: In December, the BOEM held the Big Beautiful Gulf 1 offshore lease sale for the Gulf of Mexico (America).

  • BP, Chevron, and Woodside Energy were the top winners in a somewhat muted tender round, partly due to a low-oil-price environment.

• What’s next: The Trump Administration has proposed more offshore lease sales, including for offshore West Florida. Will the region become accessible for oil exploration in the future?

No. 7: Venture Global LNG wins one major legal battle and loses another. (Well Read #72)

• What happened: New developer Venture Global LNG is fighting multiple lawsuits against long-term LNG contract holders, who have accused the company of violating their rights by selling LNG on the spot market.

  • In August, VG won a surprising victory against LNG heavyweight Shell in an arbitration hearing.

  • Two months later, VG lost a similar lawsuit against BP.

• Since the news: VG shares have been down 72 percent since the company went public in January, partly due to its legal problems. This also reflects the emerging oversupply problem facing the LNG industry.

• What’s next: VG still has pending court cases against European and Asian customers.

No. 8: Chevron bids for offshore blocks to enter Greece. (Well Read #76)

• Why it matters: This is a continuation of Chevron’s focus on the Mediterranean gas play since taking over Noble Energy in 2020.

  • It also reflects a strategic push for more international exploration acreage capture: Chevron hired Kevin McLachlan, formerly with Murphy Oil Corp. and TotalEnergies, to help improve its exploration programs as vice president of exploration.

• Trend alert: Similar to Chevron, majors such as ExxonMobil, BP, and Shell have entered into key new exploration plays in 2025.

No. 9: Diamondback says U.S. oil production might have already peaked. (Well Read #58)

• Why it matters: There is emerging consensus that U.S. shale production might be peaking in the near future, if it hasn’t already, as tier-1 drilling inventory is starting to run thin for most U.S. shale oil producers and oil prices remain depressed.

  • There are signs that U.S. shale companies are starting to find growth opportunities in the Middle East and Argentina.

No.10: BP makes the largest oil discovery in 25 years in Brazil (Well Read #70)

• What happened: Though the exact size is unknown, BP said that the exploration well in the Santos Basin found an estimated 500 meters gross pay in a high-quality, pre-salt reservoir that spans more than 300 square kilometers.

• Why it matters: This is perhaps the biggest exploration discovery in 2025 and welcome news for BP, as it tries to refocus on its core business of oil and gas E&P.

• Go deeper: BP’s Vice President for Exploration Dr. Bryan Ritchie will join us to share BP’s story in an AAPG Academy webinar on 5 February. I will moderate a conversation between Ritchie and a lead analyst from Rystad. The event is free and open to all! Register here to join us.

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✉️ To get in touch with Shangyou, send an email to editorial@aapg.org.