Wednesday, 3 December, 2025 / Edition 87

It was wonderful to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday with our kids, as they came back home to relax and recharge from their workplaces. There is much to be thankful for this holiday season. I hope those of you who celebrated enjoyed some fantastic family time.

Now, let’s dig into two pieces of energy news from Africa.

Shangyou Nie

Editor, Well Read

ExxonMobil Lifts Force Majeure on Rovuma LNG in Mozambique

TexBr/Shutterstock.com

ExxonMobil has lifted force majeure for its Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique. It plans to take final investment decision in 2026 and first production is projected for 2030. This further fuels Mozambique’s rapid journey toward becoming a major gas exporter, adding to TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG and ENI’s two FLNG projects.

The latest:

• ExxonMobil’s President, Upstream Company Dan Ammann wrote on LinkedIn on 20 November, “Great news from Mozambique—We’ve lifted force majeure, which lets us stay on track with our Rovuma LNG project.”

• Ammann attached Bloomberg news coverage on this key decision, “as security concerns subside,” stated Bloomberg.

Context:

• Mozambique’s government is working with Rwandan troops to help secure the Cabo Delgado region.

• ExxonMobil declared force majeure for the project in 2021, due to a worsening security situation; as did TotalEnergies for its Mozambique LNG project.

  • During its Q3 analyst call, ExxonMobil’s CEO Darren Woods rebuffed media reports which stated that the security concerns had forced a cancellation of event with Mozambique's President Daniel Chapo.

• ExxonMobil made the decision to resume work on Rovuma LNG as the “situation has improved drastically,” said CEO Darren Woods during the company's Q3 analyst call.

About ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG project:

• ExxonMobil is the operator of the 18-million-tons-per-year project, alongside partners CNPC, ADNOC, Korea Gas Corporation, and ENI.

  • ENI was the initial operator for deepwater block Area 4 in Mozambique.

  • Following Anadarko Petroleum’s initial gas discovery in contiguous Area 1, ENI has found more than 80 trillion cubic feet of gas in Area 4.

• During the force majeure, ExxonMobil refined its development concept and increased capacity from 15.2 to 18 million tons per year, using a modular-build approach, according to Upstream.

Other LNG projects in Mozambique:

• ENI and its partners have been producing 3.4 million tonnes per annum at its first FLNG project, Coral South (aka Coral Sul), since 2022.

• ENI took FID for its second FLNG project, Coral North (aka Coral Norte), in Q3.

• TotalEnergies lifted force majeure for its 13-million-tonnes-per-annum Mozambique LNG project in October.

• When TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil complete their onshore projects, Mozambique could be producing more than 38 million tonnes per annum of LNG by the early 2030s.

• Its location in the Indian Ocean will make Mozambique a strategic supplier for emerging Asian markets such as India and Thailand.

What they’re saying:

• “We are working with our partners and the government of Mozambique to ensure the safety of our people and facilities, as we look to develop a world-class LNG project that can help drive economic growth,” said an ExxonMobil spokesman.

• The area is “relatively stable … If we’re waiting for Cabo Delgado to be a heaven, we won’t lift force majeure,” said President Chapo, based on Bloomberg.

🚨Trend alert: Executives from leading IOCs are using LinkedIn to announce key developments, some of which might not be big enough for these majors to issue an official press release.

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Fiscal Term Improvements Lead to Potential Field Development in Kenya

The Kenyan coast near Mombassa. Credit: Antony Trivet Photography/Shutterstock.com

The Kenyan government decided to improve fiscal terms for developer Gulf Energy Corporation, potentially moving forward with a $6.1-billion oil development for onshore fields. The eastern African country is eager to join other countries in Africa in becoming a hydrocarbon producer and exporter.

How Kenya improved its first terms:

• According to Bloomberg, the Kenyan government agreed to:

  • The cost recovery ceiling increasing from 55–65 percent to 85 percent

  • An exemption to pay VAT, which was originally set at 16 percent

  • An exemption to taxes and import levies on goods and services

• Gulf Energy obtained government approval for its development plan in November after acquiring the onshore oil assets from Tullow for $120 million in April.

• Other fiscal terms to develop oil fields in South Lokichar Basin include:

  • 20 percent back-in rights by the National Oil Corporation of Kenya

  • The Kenyan government will have a 50 percent share of oil profits initially.

  • The government’s share will increase to 75 percent when oil production reaches an estimated peak level of 150,000 barrels per day.

  • A windfall tax of 26 percent will be introduced when oil prices are higher than $50 per barrel.

About Gulf Energy:

• Gulf Energy is based in Nairobi, Kenya and was founded in 2005.

• According to Gulf Energy, it has a market share of 70 percent for oil products in east and central Africa.

• In April, Gulf Energy bought the South Lokichar fields from Tullow Oil.

• Tullow retained 30 percent carried interest in the fields.

  • The South Lokichar fields are estimated to contain 326 million barrels of recoverable oil.

  • According to Upstream, Gulf Energy plans to produce the South Lokichar fields in phases, targeting first oil before the end of 2026.

  • Full production is projected to be achieved by 2032.

The bigger picture:

• Unlike its southern neighbors Mozambique and Tanzania, Kenya has not discovered oil or gas in its offshore basins.

• Tullow, once the leading explorer for Africa, discovered oil in Kenya onshore basins in 2012, but has struggled to bring them to commercial production due to transportation and other issues.

• TotalEnergies and CNOOC are developing oil fields in landlocked Uganda, with more than 1.2 billion barrels of oil discovered.

• TotalEnergies and CNOOC are building the $5.7 billion, 1,400-kilometer East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline that can transport up to 216,000 barrels per day to the Tanzanian coast.

• TotalEnergies estimated the EACOP will begin being operational by early 2026, delayed from an earlier estimated start time of late 2025.

What to watch:

• As oil prices are still weak, companies are requesting fiscal improvements to enable field development and production.

• Some resource-holding countries are considering term improvements to ensure their countries can benefit from higher oil and gas production, while the call for energy transition continues.

• Will Gulf Energy be able to bring the Kenyan oil fields to full production? Or will a more experienced foreign operator join Gulf Energy to become the operator later on?

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✉️ To get in touch with Shangyou, send an email to editorial@aapg.org.