For those who celebrate the Mid-Autumn Festival, I hope you got to enjoy this Chinese holiday with your families!
On October 13, I will be participating in an AAPG webinar entitled “Brazil’s Next Chapter: Exploration, Energy Security, and Global Ambitions.” I’ll be moderating what promises to be an insightful discussion with Sylvia Anjos, Chief Exploration and Production Officer at Petrobras, and Ruaraidh Montgomery, Head of Energy Trends & Analysis at Welligence Energy. We will explore where Brazil’s upstream sector is headed—and what its evolving role could mean for global oil and gas markets.
The webinar is free to the public. You can register to attend here. We hope to see you there!
This week, I've written two special reports: one on key takeaways from the recent Geothermal Rising event in Houston and one on South Korea's recently announced gas-fired plant in Texas. You can read the latter on AAPG.org (see below). Now, let's jump into my thoughts from Geothermal Rising!
South Korea Announces $22-billion Gas Power Plant in Texas. This is the first investment project to come out of the $350-billion pledge that South Korea made in July 2025 as part of a trade deal with the United States.
Hope For a Geothermal Renaissance is Alive and Well
Bilanol/Shutterstock.com
Last week, I went to the 50th Geothermal Rising Conference in Houston. It was enthusiastically attended by some 1,500 industry, government, university, and investment professionals.
Here are some of my observations and takeaways from the meeting.
What You Need to Know
The world is hoping the United States will make a geothermal breakthrough, like it did with the shale revolution roughly two decades ago.
Delegates from five other continents came to listen to experts speak on the United States’ progress in geothermal.
Many service providers, including global companies in drilling, seismic, equipment, and modeling, were showcasing their capabilities, hoping to become part of the geothermal renaissance.
There are four gigawatts of geothermal installed in the United States, the most of anywhere worldwide, though still a very small percentage of the country’s power system.
There are some 37 geothermal projects in 15 states.
Most of the tier-1, large-scale potential geothermal projects (gigawatt scale) are in the western United States.
Ninety percent of geothermal resources are located on federal lands.
There are several one-gigawatt offtake agreements signed for geothermal projects in 2026.
California has 2.87 gigawatts of geothermal capacity, representing 72 percent of the national total. Geothermal will help California reach its 2045 net-zero carbon electricity goal by 2045.
Many of the stars are lining up for the anticipated geothermal renaissance, especially for Enhanced Geothermal Systemprojects.
Geothermal enjoys bipartisan support in the United States, a rarity within the country’s energy industry. Nuclear power is the only other subsector that currently receives bipartisan support.
Many of the technologies from the oil and gas industry can be applied to geothermal projects, including those from horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing, high-temperature and high-pressure equipment, seismic imaging, and AI-assisted rock property modeling.
More money is flowing into geothermal, with $3 billion invested in 2026, including Fervo’s IPO on May 13.
One or two more IPOs are expected in 2027.
There is strong government and industry collaborationwithin U.S. geothermal.
The DoE established four Centers of Excellence for geothermal inside national labs.
Geothermal leasing is heating up.
Geothermal lease sales in Utah attracted $24 million and $16 million in New Mexico, which used to attract just thousands of dollars.
Oregon, having been dormant within geothermal for the past 15 years, is attracting a lot of leasing interest from companies out of state.
Some states with geothermal potential don’t have the oil and gas industry experience necessary to move quickly (e.g., Nevada), but they could learn from other states such as Texas and Colorado.
More direct involvement from oil and gas companies will increase the chance of success for geothermal.
E&P companies have….
The geoscience and engineering professionals that geothermal projects need
The technological know-how and large project management skills to aid geothermal
Strong portfolios that could weather some of the downtimes for geothermal
Considerable challenges remain to make geothermal economically competitive compared to other energy sources, especially natural gas.
Policymakers, regulators, community, and industry need to work together.
Cycle time for geothermal projects is six to seven years and needs to move faster.
Quantifying the geothermal resources in the subsurface is a key challenge; reservoir characterization is critical.
Geothermal must establish credibility to attract more financing and gain support.
Project leaders need to deliver results as projected and promised. The geothermal industry will suffer if there are too many “brag-watts.”
What I Heard at Geothermal Rising
Here are some key quotes to help you get a sense of the conversation at the event.
From the U.S. government:
“It took 10 years and thousands of wells for the shale revolution [to occur]. The geothermal industry drills about 100 wells per year now. We need to move projects from experiments to bankable projects” —Lauren Boyd, Director, Office of Geothermal, U.S. DOE.
“Data centers are a catalytic opportunity for geothermal…. Geothermal can be linked to data centers, but they should not be dependent on data centers,” Boyd added.
“We are a multi-billion-dollar lender and are looking at very large projects. We can stay with projects a long time; but you need to meet your timelines as projected”—Elizabeth Wolfe, Senior Advisor, Loan Programs Office, U.S. DOE.
“The DOE could help fund up to 80 percent of a project, but 20 percent of a multi-billion project is still a lot of money,” Wolfe added.
“Hyperscalers are helping to drive geothermal projects forward,” Wolfe noted.
“We are changing leasing for geothermal from once every two years to annually”—Bill Groffy, Principal Deputy Director and Acting Director, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior.
On geothermal investments:
“We have created a geothermal-focused fund and are looking at mid-stage projects”—Liz Harnmeijer, Senior Vice President, EIG Partners.
“I will flatly say ‘No, we [bankers] are not ready for the industry to scale up,’” Harnmeijer added.
“There have been 60 EGS wells drilled this year, which is still too few compared to the shale revolution”—Jonathan Sisto, Managing Director, Investment Banking, AI Energy Solutions & Energy Transition, RBC Capital Markets
On international support and learning:
“The Japanese government announced $1 billion in support last year for geothermal”—a delegate from a Japanese company.
“Can we [Europeans] join your state-to-state dialogues to learn how to speed up geothermal regulations in Europe?”—Sylvain Broglé, Public Relations, Business Advisor, and Brand Ambassador, Italy.
“We are learning a lot from New Zealand and Iceland, who have used geothermal longer”—Michael Rigby, Energy Transition Senior Scientist, Colorado Energy and Carbon Management Commission.
“We are encouraging using all synergies between the oil and gas industry [including CCS] and geothermal,” Rigby added.
“Geothermal’s [successful] future will be built by us learning from each other,” Robin Zuza, Vice President, Subsurface, Ormat Technologies.
“This is the geothermal decade,” Zuza added.
On geothermal challenges:
“There are four main areas for geothermal risk: reservoir characterization, drilling, completion and stimulation, and circulation”—John McLennan, Professor, The University of Utah.
“Just like the shale revolution, there will be some ups and downs for geothermal…There were more than 100 U.S. E&P companies that filed for bankruptcy [during the shale revolution]”—Jonathan Verlander, Head of Investment Valuation, Baseload Capital.
Understanding Mobile Shales Through Science and Practice
Discover the latest advances in mobile shale research through expert presentations, collaborative discussions, and a unique field excursion in Bucharest, Romania.
