Last week, I got to live one of my dreams, competing in the North American Bridge Championship in St. Louis with my bridge partner, Mark. It was the first time for me to face off directly against the best bridge players around the world, including bridge’s “Kobe Bryant,” a 21-year-old American superstar, as well as world champion Finn Kolesnik.
We won 15 platinum and gold master points, but we were mostly humbled by the opponents’ skills, poise, and competition experience.
Now, let’s look at two developments in the energy world.
Shangyou Nie
Editor, Well Read
G7 Agrees Not to Tap Strategic Oil Reserves for Now, Despite Brent Price Hikes
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The world’s seven richest countries (the G7) held an emergency meeting and agreed not to release oil from their strategic reserves for now, as the world tries to cope with a sudden oil price spike. The group said they stand ready to act should oil prices rise too high.
Inside the G7 meeting:
Finance ministers from the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and Italy met on Monday to discuss the global economic impact of the ongoing conflict in Iran.
They could decide to approve the release of the strategic reserves as early as Tuesday.
According to the Financial Times, quoting a source familiar with the G7 meeting, a joint release of 300–400 million barrels might be “appropriate.”
Background:
The Paris-based IEA was established in 1974 by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in response to the oil crisis at that time.
The IEA has 32 countries, in addition to 13 “associate countries,” including China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa.
In April 2022, IEA member countries agreed to use emergency oil reserves following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
By the numbers:
Brent briefly touched $120 per barrel as London opened its trading day on 9 March.
By Tuesday, the Brent price came down to $93.35 per barrel, following the G7 meeting and President Trump’s news conference on Monday, in which he said the Iran conflict would be over “very soon.”
WTI also reached $110 per barrel before falling to $90.65 per barrel on Tuesday.
According to the Financial Times, the $35 per barrel intra-day price swing (from $129 to $84 per barrel) on Monday was the largest on record.
Supply chain disruptions:
Oil shipping stopped across the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran conflict entered its second week, according to Bloomberg.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have shut in 6.7 million barrels per day of oil production, according to Bloomberg.
Twenty percent of global crude supply is shipped from the Gulf states, and 80 percent of that is sent to Asian markets.
Twenty percent of the global LNG supply is also stopped, as Qatar declared force majeure for LNG production.
Ninety percent of the LNG from the Persian Gulf is for Asian customers.
Markets react:
IEA member countries hold 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil stocks.
IEA member countries also hold an additional 600 million barrels of industry stocks.
Asian stock markets fell sharply on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 5 percent, and South Korea’s index down 6 percent, according to the WSJ.
Gas prices in Europe rose by more than 80 percent in since the start of the Iran conflict on 28 February.
“We have agreed to use any necessary tools to stabilize the market, including the release of stockpiles. We are monitoring the situation very closely,” said Roland Lescure, the French minister of economy and finance, who hosted the G7 meeting.
What to watch:
When will shipping resume across the Strait of Hormuz?
France said that its navy will also help to safely resume shipping across the Strait of Hormuz, purely in a “defense” operation, after the United States said that it would escort oil tankers through the strait.
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Venture Global LNG Shares Are Up 84 Percent in 2026 Despite $3.7 Billion Damages Claim from BP
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Fueled by increased production, newly signed long-term supply contracts, several legal victories, and higher LNG prices, stock for leading American producer Venture Global LNG has shot up 84 percent YTD in 2026.
The jump comes at a time when VG might have to pay $3.7 billon in damages to BP after BP won an arbitration in 2025.
BP’s claim:
BP won the arbitration against VG in October 2025. The case found that VG had breached its obligations to declare a Commercial Operation Day for Calcasieu LNG in a timely manner.
According to the VG’s 2025 Annual Report, BP’s damage claim ranges “from $3.7 billion to potentially in excess of $6.0 billion, as well as interest, costs, and attorneys’ fees.”
The damages hearing has not been scheduled but will occur in 2026 or 2027.
VG won two arbitration awards in 2026
On 15 January, the ICC sided with VG in an arbitration filed by Repsol for $400 million in damages.
On 3 March, a New York court rejected Shell’s request to throw out an arbitration award in favor of VG on 12 August 2025.
VG is involved in three other arbitrations with unnamed customers.
In two of them, awards are expected in 2026. Damages claimed total upwards of $1.9 billion.
VG settled the third case.
VG increases LNG production:
According to VG, it exported 128 cargoes in Q4 2025 (90 from Plaquemines and 38 from Calcasieu Pass). That number is three times the average quarterly deliveries of 2024.
More than 80 percent of VG cargoes have been sent to European markets. The rest went to Asian and Latin American markets.
VG has signed a total of 48.5 million tonnes per annum in long-term sales and purchase agreements. This breaks down to:
20 million tonnes per annum for Plaquemines LNG
18.5 million tonnes per annum for Calcasieu Pass 2
10 million tonnes per annum for Calcasieu Pass
The bigger picture:
The world consumption for LNG reached 430 million tonnes per annum in 2025.
It is on its way to reach 600 million tonnes per annum by 2030 and 700 million tonnes per annum by 2035.
The LNG market found some rebalance four years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, only to be shocked again by the ongoing conflict in Iran.
According to VG projections, in the long run, VG will become the world’s second-largest LNG producer at 81 million tonnes per annum (net). It will be second only to QatarEnergy (100 million tonnes per annum).
What to watch:
Will Shell and Repsol continue their legal battles against VG?
FID for Phase II in Calcasieu Pass 2 is expected in Q1 2026.
VG filed applications to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy to expand Plaquemines LNG by 31 million tonnes per annum via brownfield expansion.
FID is planned for early 2027.
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