Prices inch upward in the wake of Venezuela's uncertain future.
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Wednesday, 7 January, 2026 / Edition 92

Best wishes for a wonderful 2026!

 

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Now, let’s dig into two pieces of energy news from the past week.

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Shangyou Nie

 

Editor, Well Read

Oil Prices Rise Slightly After Maduro Capture

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Alejandro Perez Alvares/Shutterstock.com

The global oil market reacted mildly to the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. Brent increased 1.6 percent to $61.75 per barrel on Monday, while WTI rose by 1.7 percent to $58.30 per barrel. Several oil and service companies’ stocks made steeper climbs, however. The world and the oil industry are anxious to see what will unfold in Venezuela in the near future.

 

The latest

  • In the courts:

    • On 5 January, the U.S. Justice Department indicted Maduro for narco-terrorism and conspiracy to import cocaine in a U.S. District Court in the Southern District of New York.

    • The Court issued an official indictment reading, “United States of America v. Nicolás Maduro Moros.” It lists five other co-defendants, including Maduro’s wife Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro.

    • The ousted Venezuelan leader pleaded “not guilty,” saying “I’m innocent,” and “I am still president of my country.”

    • The next court date is scheduled for 17 March, according to the Wall Street Journal.

  • In Caracas:

    • The Trump Administration is working with Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela’s vice president under Maduro, rather than the opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado.

    • “She doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within, the country,” President Trump said of Machado during Saturday’s news conference.

    • “Unfortunately, the vast majority of the opposition is no longer present inside of Venezuela. We have short-term things that have to be addressed right away,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his interview on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday.

The market reacts:

  • Oil service companies’ shares rose the most upon Maduro’s capture, with SLB up 11.9 percent, Halliburton up 10.9 percent, and Baker Hughes up 5.8 percent.

  • America’s leading oil companies’ stock prices also rose: Chevron shares jumped 5.7 percent, ConocoPhillips rose 3.1 percent, and ExxonMobil increased 2.4 percent.

Why the muted reaction? Despite being the world’s largest reserve holder, Venezuela produces only about 1 percent of the global oil.

 

By the numbers:

  • According to the Energy Information Administration, Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves with 303 billion barrels.

  • At its height, Venezuela produced 3.4 million barrels of oil per day in 1998, according to the annual Statistical Review of Energy published by the Energy Institute.

  • Many years of under-investment and oil sector mismanagement have led to significant production decline in Venezuela.

  • The latest EIA data shows that Venezuela produced 995,000 barrels of crude and condensate in August 2025.

  • An estimated 8 million people have left Venezuela since 2014, among them are skilled engineers and oil and gas professionals.

Nationalization:

  • In May 2007, Venezuela’s state company PDVSA took over operational control of 10 extra-heavy oil projects in the Orinoco Belt, under the directive of the then-President Hugo Chávez.

  • Chávez believed the move to nationalize Venezuela’s oil sector to be a victory over the United States, saying that “Venezuela will never be a North American colony.”

  • ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and others have since filed around 60 arbitration lawsuits against the Venezuelan government, claiming $20–30 billion in damages.

Current O&G players in Venezuela:

  • American: Chevron has had special permission from the Biden and Trump administrations to continue its operations in Venezuela.

    • It has 3,000 employees in Venezuela and produces about 250,000 barrels of oil per day there, according to the Financial Times.

  • European: Spain’s Repsol, Italy’s ENI, and France’s Maurel & Prom also continue to operate in Venezuela.

  • Chinese and Russian: CNPC and Russia’s Gazprom Neft have operations in Venezuela as well.

    • According to the WSJ, China is the largest importer of Venezuelan oil, receiving half to two-thirds of its crude production.

    • Chinese national oil companies’ share prices dipped on Monday: PetroChina dropped 3.5 percent, CNOOC 3.3 percent, and Sinopec 1.9 percent, according to the WSJ.

    • President Trump said that Venezuelan oil export to China will continue, albeit under U.S. auspices.

What they’re saying:

  • “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” said President Trump during a press conference last Saturday.

  • ConocoPhillips is “monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability. It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments,” said COP in a statement.

Looking ahead:

  • While Venezuelan heavy crude can still be sold on the open markets, rather than mostly shipped to China under the “oil for loan” arrangements, U.S. refineries along the Gulf Coast might see some immediate benefit, as they are fit to process Venezuelan heavy crude.

  • Under conducive political and economic conditions, Venezuela could become a major growth opportunity for the oil and gas industry in the future.

  • As Venezuela is still under U.S. sanctions, and there is significant uncertainty for the political future of the country, it might be months, if not years, before oil and gas companies decide to return or increase investment in Venezuela.

Bear in mind: IOCs make their investment decisions on their own investment criteria, including:

  1. People and operational security

  2. Legal clarity

  3. Fiscal attractiveness and stability

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