The IEA outlines where geothermal power could grow next, AAPG’s Geothermal Discussion Group looks at practical challenges, and new research from Germany traces the source of the Baden-Baden thermal springs.
Geothermal power is not new, but recent developments have given its producers a broad spectrum from shallow, low temperature to deep, high temperature options. This week, we will review some new reports on geothermal energy. Best wishes for joyful holidays to you and your families from all of us at AAPG!
Rasoul Sorkhabi
Editor, Core Elements
IEA on the Near Future of Geothermal Energy
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The International Energy Agency published its latest report entitled The Future of Geothermal Power. The report also became a basis for two presentations by IEA researchers:
Geothermal electricity generation has grown nearly 40 percent during the past decade. Hydrothermal (conventional) geothermal power accounts for only 0.8 percent of global energy demand or about 5 exajoules.
If the IEA’s stated policies scenario is realized, global geothermal power capacity could increase nearly 50 percent to 22 gigawatts by 2030 and almost 60 gigawatts by 2055.
Geothermal heating capacity could double by 2030 and triple by 2050.
Advanced or Next-Generation (NG) geothermal systems:
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which involve fracture stimulation of tight hot-dry basement rocks to create permeability
Closed-loop geothermal systems (CLGS) act as underground heat exchangers between injection and producing wells
Thermal energy from depths:
EGS electricity potential within depths of 8 kilometers is nearly 300,000 exajoules or 600 terawatts, operating for 20 years.
Heat generation from sedimentary aquifers at depths of 0.5 to 5 kilometers and temperatures over 90 °C is 250,000 exajoules (320 terawatts for 25 years).
Next-Generation geothermal power for electricity:
NG geothermal energy for electricity generation shows considerable promise with current projects estimated to cost $14,000 per kilowatt.
This cost may drop by up to 80 percent by 2030 due to technological innovation.
If the low-cost NG geothermal power materializes, it could generate 120 gigawatts of electricity by 2025 and 800 gigawatts by 2050, or up to 8 percent of electricity supply by 2050.
Next-Generation geothermal power for heat:
About half of total global heat demand is for heat less than 200 °C, mainly for space and water heating.
Advanced geothermal systems that co-generate electricity and heat can provide heat directly to industrial consumers and centralized heating networks.
If there are significant reductions in drilling expenses and NG geothermal power plants fall to about US $1,150 per kilowatt-hour by 2035, the cost for heat could be as low as US $5 per gigajoule.
Critical minerals from geothermal brine:
If all planned geothermal projects materialize, 47 kilotons per year of lithium could be produced from geothermal brine by 2025. This is 5 percent of global lithium demand.
Geothermal power integrated with the oil and gas industry:
Two-thirds of investment in geothermal projects engage skillsets from the oil and gas industry.
Some overlapping skillsets between petroleum and geothermal industries include subsurface reservoir characterization, 3D modeling, field development, drilling, and surface operations.
Incorporating geothermal power can add benefits to the oil and gas industry, not only in terms of producing clean energy but also for commercial purposes.
Government support:
Geothermal energy is currently included in only 22 countries' 2030 renewable energy portfolio.
Indonesia, the Philippines, and Turkey are pursuing an ambitious geothermal path.
Geothermal job market:
The geothermal industry supports more than 145,000 jobs today. This could easily multiply before 2030 if countries and corporations commit to further developments.
Most future workers in geothermal are expected to come from the oil and gas sector.
Note: The IEA projections for geothermal power assume that the world embraces the IEA’s stated policies for low-carbon industries, which may not be the case. Nevertheless, the IEA’s report highlights geothermal energy’s huge potential in many parts of the world.
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Geothermal energy has been on AAPG’s portfolio of activities for many years. Here is some information about the AAPG Geothermal Discussion Group (GDG) and an invitation to join.
About the group:
GDG encompasses members from the United States, Europe, and Australia.
GDG stemmed from the Geothermal Energy Basic class offered by Carlo Dietl for the past ten years.
GDG holds monthly Zoom meetings, usually on the third Thursday of each month.
Group discussions have evolved from general geothermal topics to more practical issues such as realistic technologies, legal and leadership aspects, project funding, and public education.
This is a great opportunity to meet with active researchers, engage in thought-provoking discussions, and networking. We particularly invite geoscience and engineering students to join this effort and group.
I also suggest these YouTube clips from DW Planet A, PBS Utah, and DOE on geothermal power.
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These sodium-chlorine brines with temperatures of 52 to 69°C originate from a deep granitic basement, likely to be the Nordschwarzwald Batholith that formed at 330–320 Ma during the Variscan orogeny.
The hot springs are located close to the Eastern Main Boundary Fault of the Upper Rhine Valley.
Water chemistry and geothermal data indicate that the hot springs come from reservoir depths at temperatures of about 176°C.
The hot springs are recharged meteoric waters dating to 10,800 years ago.
Why it matters: The study offers an interesting methodology to investigate the origin of hot springs in other parts of the world.
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