The IEA and OPEC make oil growth demand predictions. TotalEnergies reports a new discovery in Namibia, while Chevron and Shell face challenges in the West African country.
Upon returning to the White House on Monday, President Trump announced several executive orders that will significantly impact the energy space. We shall discuss these decisions and implications next week in more detail.
For now, let’s look at two pieces of energy news from last week.
Shangyou Nie
Editor, Well Read
IEA and OPEC Predict Differing Rates of Growth for Oil Demand in 2025
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Two of the world’s leading agencies, the IEA and OPEC, issued their latest forecasts for oil demand growth in 2025. Global oil demand will reach 104 million barrels per day according to the IEA and 105 million barrels per day according to OPEC.
Continued strong demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, both estimated at 1.4 million barrels per day
World oil demand will grow to 105.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.6 million barrels per day in 2026.
In 2024, that number was: 103.8 million barrels per day
Non-OPEC+ oil supply growth for 2025 is forecast at 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching 55.4 million barrels per day in 2025.
Non-OPEC+ 2025 supply growth will be led by the United States (0.5 million barrels per day), Brazil (0.18 million barrels per day), Canada (0.16 million barrels per day), and Norway (0.10 million barrels per day).
Implications:
The difference in predicted future oil demand growth reflects differences in global economic growth forecasts and the pace of the energy transition, such as the intake rate of China’s electronic vehicles and oil demand growth.
Both agencies suggest that there is ample supply to meet demand growth and that there will be downward pressure on oil prices in the near future.
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Mixed News from Deepwater Namibia
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TotalEnergies reportedly made a new oil discovery in the Orange Basin in Namibia, while Chevron’s first new field wildcat failed to find oil. Shell has written-off some exploration wells in the same country, as it deems the wells economically unviable.
TotalEnergies’ discovery:
The Tamboti-1X exploration well is drilled in Block 2913B by the semi-submersible rig Deepsea Mira from drilling contractor Northern Ocean Ltd.
The operator is reportedly conducting a drill stem test for the “oily” discovery, though it is too early to say whether it would be commercial.
The pre-drilling resource estimate is that the structure could hold 1 billion barrels of resource.
According to Upstream, Tamboti-1X is classified as an exploration well. Its main target could be the eastern extension of a big fan complex discovered by the Mangetti-1X discovery.
Satellite data suggested a flare was at the site of the Deepsea Mira drilling ship on 10 January, indicating an ongoing test.
TotalEnergies is the operator and holds 45.3 percent equity in Block 2013B, with partners QatarEnergy (35.3 percent), state company NAMCOR (10 percent), and London-based Impact Oil and Gas (9.5 percent).
In Block 2913B, TotalEnergies is also developing the Venus discovery made in 2022.
Chevron’s unsuccessful well:
According to Toronto-listed Sintana Energy—one of Chevron’s minority partners in Block 2814B in PEL 90—Chevron’s exploration well Kapana 1-X did not find commercial hydrocarbons.
PEL 90 is west of Galp Energia’s PEL 83, which includes the Mopane discovery, and North of TotalEnergies PEL 56, which includes the Venus discovery.
Chevron’s indirect subsidiary Harmattan Energy Ltd drilled the well.
According to Sintana, the drilling operations returned valuable information and “increased confidence in the future program on PEL 90.”
Chevron is the operator and holds 90 percent of PEL 90. The remaining 10 percent interest is owned by Trago Energy, a wholly owned subsidiary of Custos Energy, in which Sintana owns 49 percent.
Shell’s write-offs:
According to Reuters, Shell will write-off around $400 million in exploration costs in Namibia, citing technical challenges including resource mobility and permeability, as well as a high gas-to-oil ratio.
Shell also told Reuters that discovered oil and gas resource in its deepwater block PEL 39 “cannot currently be confirmed for commercial development.”
According to Upstream, one Shell spokesperson referred to the write-off as “an accounting process [that] does not represent ongoing efforts in PEL 39.”
Shell drilled six exploration wells and three appraisal wells in PEL 39 and continues “to explore potential commercial pathways to development, while actively looking for further exploration opportunities in Namibia,” according to a Shell statement quoted in Upstream.
Namibia’s Ministry of Mines and Energy responded: “The collective discoveries from the nine drilled wells amount to significant volumes of hydrocarbons accumulations. The government of Namibia remains committed to developing these discoveries, which are believed to be commercially viable. We are dedicated to progressing these opportunities with the right partner and right investment commitment.”
What’s next:
According to Namibia’s Ministry of Mines and Energy, TotalEnergies and its partners are aiming to take FID for the Venus oil field in 2025.
Galp Energia is trying to bring in a new partner to develop the Mopane accumulation while drilling up to four appraisal and exploration wells in Namibia.
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