The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently published two reports—one on oil and the second on electric vehicles (EVs)—that offer analyses and forecasts for these two major energy fields.
Before we take a look at these new studies, I have a request: If you have had meaningful professional experiences at IMAGE gatherings in Houston, we’d love if you would share them! AAPG is looking for testimonials to help showcase the impact that IMAGE has in the geoscience community. We’d much appreciate if you could send your experience to editorial@aapg.org 🙂
Rasoul Sorkhabi
Editor, Core Elements
Oil Outlook for 2030
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The IEA’s 150-page Oil 2025 report opens with a cautionary statement: “Heightened geopolitical risks, unresolved trade tensions, and policy shifts have added myriad uncertainties to the oil market outlook.”
The report looks at global oil demand, supply, refineries, trade, and natural gas liquids. Let’s review some key takeaways.
OPEC+ effects:
OPEC+’s May 2025 decision to unwind oil production curbs, coupled with the impact of higher tariffs on international trade, has led oil executives to reevaluate their investment plans.
If OPEC+ increases oil production by two million barrels of oil equivalent per day as is planned, it will help maintain lower oil prices.
2015–2030:
From 2015–2025, oil market dynamics have been shaped largely by growth in U.S. oil supply due to the shale revolution and Chinese oil demand for economic growth.
The United States accounted for 90 percent of the increase in global oil supply.
Chinese oil demand rose by more than eight million barrels per day, or about 60 percent of the global oil consumption increase.
These two parallel growths may face serious limitations from 2025–2030:
China’s oil consumption in 2030 will be only marginally higher than that of 2024.
In the United States, continued low gasoline prices may increase oil demand by 1.1 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.
On global demand:
Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 million barrels of oil per day from 2024–2030, reaching around 105.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.
The demand for emerging and developing economies, particularly in Asia, will increase by 4.2 million barrels of oil per day.
On global supply:
World oil production capacity is forecast to rise 5.1 million barrels of oil per day to 114.7 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.
Two-thirds of the global increase in oil production, roughly 3.1 million barrels of oil per day, will come from non-OPEC+ countries.
On the refining industry:
Global demand for refined products is projected to peak in 2027 at 86.3 million barrels of oil per day—only 710,000 barrels of oil per day above 2024 levels.
Experts predict a new refining capacity of 4.2 million barrels of oil per day globally by 2030. This is projected to be partly offset by 1.6 million barrels of oil per day of closures.
The new demand growth for refined products will occur mainly in Asia.
On petrochemicals:
As the transportation and electric power generation sectors continue to diversify, petrochemical products will increasingly become the dominant sector for global oil demand growth beginning in 2026.
Global production of polymers and synthetic fibers will require 18.4 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.
China and the United States lead the infrastructures for petrochemical capacity.
On natural gas liquid (NGL):
From 2014 to 2024, global NGLs’ production grew by 4.3 million barrels of oil per day to 13.6 million barrels of oil per day.
From 2025 to 2030, NGLs will rise by another 2.0 million barrels of oil per day to 15.5 million barrels of oil per day.
The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Canada account for 84 percent of production in 2024; Their collective share will rise to 88 percent by 2030.
The United States holds 51 percent of NGL market share, which will increase from its current 6.69 million barrels of oil per day to 7.8 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.
Go deeper: Read the full IEA Oil 2025 report here.
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Another recent IEA report analyzes the expansion and diversification of EVs. Here’s what you should know from that report:
On sales and markets:
EV sales increased from 13.5 million in 2023 to 17 million in 2024.
EV sales are expected to exceed 20 million by the end of 2025, accounting for 25 percent of cars sold worldwide.
Emerging markets in South America and Southeast Asia purchased 600,000 EVs in 2024 (roughly a 60 percent increase from 2023). This was about the size of the European market five years ago.
Global share of EVs is expected to exceed 40 percent in 2030 under current policies.
Onmanufacturing:
China holds more than 70 percent of global production of EVs. This may increase to 80 percent by 2030.
Chinese EV manufactures sold about 80 percent of their products domestically in 2024.
The United States remained a net importer of EVs in 2024. Imports increased 40 percent and exports fell 15 percent.
On electric trucks:
Electric truck sales grew nearly 80 percent globally in 2024, reaching nearly two percent of total truck sales.
China’s electric truck sales doubled to 75,000 vehicles, representing more than 80 percent ofglobal sales in 2024.
In Europe and the United States, electric truck sales in 2024remained similar to 2023 levels.
On batteries:
Battery demand for EV and electricity storage applications reached a historical milestone of one terawatt-hour in 2024.
In 2024, EV battery demand grew more than 30 percent in China and 20 percent in the United States.
Demand stalled in the European Union.
EV battery demand is expected to reach more than three terawatt-hours in 2030.
Go deeper:
Bloomberg published its 2025 Electric Vehicle Outlook Report last month. It states that “(EV) sales in the United States are slowing and face uncertainty due to policy changes, while some emerging economies are experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric models arrive targeting local buyers.”
For more IEA reports on global energy and critical minerals, read here.
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