All imports would be prohibited by year's end 2027. Plus, in its latest licensing round, Brazil attracted many players to invest in its offshore deepwater basins.
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Wednesday, 25 June, 2025 / Edition 64

This was one of the happiest weekends in our lives, as our second daughter Helen married Freddie in Skane, Sweden. More than 130 members of our family and friends from 26 different countries got together to witness and celebrate the special occasion.

 

It is fitting that I start this week’s Well Read on a Europe-focused item. 

Shangyou-Nie-Headshot-Signature

 

Shangyou Nie

 

Editor, Well Read

EU Proposes Ban on Russian Gas Imports

LNG Pipeline - Ulrichulrich-Wikipedia 560x420

Ulrichulrich/Wikipedia

Last Tuesday, the European Commission proposed a ban on Russian gas imports before year’s end 2027. The ban is proposed no matter how the Russia-Ukraine war ends, with the goal being to sever the energy connection between E.U. countries and Russia.

 

About the ban: According to the WSJ, if passed, the ban will be implemented in stages:

  1. Imports for Russian pipeline and LNG gas will be prohibited beginning 1 January 2026.

  2. Imports under existing short-term contracts would be banned starting 17 June 2026.

  3. Imports under long-term contracts would be banned from 1 January 2028.

  4. Land-locked E.U. countries, including Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria, would be granted longer terms to end Russian gas imports.

Background:

  • The latest proposed ban on Russian gas imports adds to the previously announced ban on Russian coal imports in 2022.

  • For oil, the E.U. is proposing a new and lower price cap for Russian crude, from its previous $60/barrel to $45/barrel.

  • According to the WSJ, gas imports from Russia represented 19 percent of E.U. gas imports in 2024, down from 45 percent before Russia invaded Ukraine.

    • LNG imports have increased, reaching a record of 16.5 million tonnes in 2024.

  • Oil imports from Russia declined to three percent last year from 27 percent in early 2022.

  • Russia cut gas supplies in 2006, 2009, and 2014 and reduced flows in 2021 before invading Ukraine.

Opposing views:

  • Hungary and Slovakia declined to support the proposal, citing concerns of energy security and sovereignty.

  • On 17 June, Austria became the third country after Hungary and Slovakia to call for the resumption of Russian gas imports after the war is over.

  • Some E.U. countries had previously suggested re-opening Russian gas imports as a bargaining chip for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine.

What they’re saying:

  • Brussels “must maintain the option to reassess the situation once the war has ended,” a representative from the Australian energy ministry told the Financial Times.

  • “[Resuming Russian gas imports after the war] would be a very unwise decision because that would just be refilling Putin’s war chest with money,” said Dan Jørgensen, the E.U.’s commissioner for energy and housing.

What’s next:

  • The commission is trying to use a legal basis for the E.U. to adopt the proposal, requiring the support of at least 15 out of E.U.’s 27 members.

  • E.U. member states are required to present national phase-out plans by 1 March 2026.

  • The ban requires European Parliament and Council approval for a simple majority “from a reinforced majority of member states.”

  • The proposal is seen as a move by the European Commission to circumvent a potential veto by an individual E.U. country.

    • The E.U.’s ban would provide legal grounds in case companies want to invoke “force majeure” clauses to exit their existing Russian gas contracts.

  • The proposed ban can be changed by another majority vote; however, it would be a lower threshold, as E.U. sanctions would require unanimous support from all E.U. countries.

  • In case the security of supply for one or more states is seriously threatened, the commission could take necessary emergency measures to suspend the ban.

  • Will Russia be able to reach an agreement with China to build the second Siberia-China gas pipeline to make up for the lost gas export volume to Europe?

Learn more here.

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Brazil Attracts Majors to Deepwater Frontier Basins

Offshore Oil Rig - Joe Belanger-Shutterstock

Joe Belanger/Shutterstock

In its latest licensing round, Brazil attracted many players to invest in its offshore deepwater basins. This is a continuing attempt by international companies to address the growth challenge for the oil and gas industry.

 

About the bid round:

The Brazilian National Petroleum Agency (ANP) awarded 34 blocks in the bid round, raising 989.3 million reais ($185.5 million). ANP offered a total of 168 exploration blocks in the 5th Permanent Concession Offer Cycle: 147 offshore, 21 onshore. Here’s how these broke down:

  • Fifty deepwater blocks from the proven Santos Basin

  • Forty-five new blocks in areas considered environmentally sensitive, including 14 from the Foz do Amazonas Basin

  • Ninety-eight deepwater blocks from frontier deepwater basins: 47 in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, 34 in the Pelotas Basin, and 16 in the Potiguar Basin

Round winners:

  • Chevron (65 percent) won six blocks in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, with Chinese partner CNPC (35 percent).

  • Petrobras and ExxonMobil are equal partners and will each be the operator of five blocks in the Foz do Amazonas basin.

  • Shell won four blocks, and Equinor won one block in the proven Santos Basin.

  • Petrobras (70 percent) and Portuguese Galp Energia (30 percent) won three blocks in the Pelotas Basin.

  • Little-known Australian company Karoon Energy won six blocks in the Santos Basin, though it is already an investor there.

Background:

  • Brazil has been a major success story for deepwater exploration and production, and Petrobras has been a proven industry leader.

  • Major IOCs, including ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor, and BP, are actively investing in the country.

  • All three Chinese national companies—CNOOC, CNPC, and Sinopec—are investing in Brazil.

  • Experts believe the frontier basin blocks have attracted so much attention this time due to the potential for the Brazilian government to finally give environmental approval for drilling.

What to watch:

  • This is a rare partnership between Chevron and CNPC: Could this foretell a broader collaboration between the number two oil company in the United States and the number one oil company in China?

  • ExxonMobil is deepening its partnership with Petrobras in Brazil.

  • Petrobras was reportedly among the bidders for Galp Energia’s dilution of the Mopane oil discovery in Namibia.

    • Petrobras might try to sweeten its offer to become Galp’s development partner in Namibia, for which TotalEnergies is reportedly the front runner.

Get more information here.

More happening soon in Brazil... ICE Rio 2025 registration is now open! Learn more about AAPG's signature global event that is coming up 30 September—3 October 2025 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 

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