Wednesday, 23 April, 2025 / Edition 55

Happy Wednesday! I hope you had a chance to enjoy the beautiful spring season and vitality of life with family this weekend.

Before we jump into the energy news updates for the week, I want to personally invite each of you (and your friends and colleagues!) to join energy consultant David Curtiss and me for a free webinar tomorrow at 12pm CDT, hosted by AAPG Academy. We will be discussing five of the latest upstream market trends and their effects on the oil and gas job market. You can register to attend here.

Shangyou Nie

Editor, Well Read

China Stops LNG Imports From the United States

Chuyuss/Shutterstock.com

According to the Financial Times, China has stopped importing LNG from the United States for more than 10 weeks, as the Sino-U.S. trade war continues and Chinese companies resell their LNG purchases to Europe.

The latest:

• The last time U.S. LNG was sent to China was 6 February, when a 69,000-tonne LNG tanker from Corpus Christi, Texas arrived in the Fujian province.

• A different tanker was redirected to Bangladesh on 10 February before China imposed a 15 percent tariff on U.S. LNG.

• The tariff on U.S. LNG has since increased to 49 percent. At this level, U.S. LNG becomes non-economic for Chinese importers.

Context:

• Many Chinese LNG buyers have international trading arms, which could resell LNG to Europe or other locations for a profit because of the destination flexibility clause in these LNG contracts.

• According to the New York Times, Chinese companies have historically been big buyers of U.S. LNG. Many companies were sending their purchases to Europe even before the tariffs took effect.

• China has reduced its LNG imports from the United States, despite PetroChina and Sinopec both signing long-term LNG contracts from U.S. suppliers.

• According to Upstream, between 2021 and 2023, Chinese companies signed long-term contracts for 26.3 million tonnes per annum from the United States, with 75 percent set to begin delivery after 2025.

• Russia has become China’s third largest LNG exporter, after Australia and Qatar.

• In 2024, only six percent of China’s LNG imports came from the United States—an 11 percent decrease from 2021.

What they’re saying:

• “The last time this happened, there was a complete hiatus until the Chinese authorities granted waivers to companies,” said Gillian Boccara, director for gas and LNG at Belgian-based LNG research firm Kpler.

• “Now, we are looking at lower economic growth, and we think the Chinese can withstand the loss of these cargos for quite a long time,” added Boccara.

• “With tariffs rising to the level where they are an effective embargo, we will see a reshuffling of trade flows,” said Richard Bronze, co-founder and executive director of Energy Aspects. “We also expect Asian demand to fall by 5 to 10 million tonnes as a whole. That should bring gas prices down a bit in Europe.”

What to watch:

• China may increase LNG imports from Russia. “I know for sure that there are a lot of buyers. Many buyers are asking the [Chinese] embassy to help establish contacts with Russian suppliers,” said Zhang Hanhui, China’s ambassador to Russia.

• Will the ongoing United States-China trade war lead to accelerated negotiations around the stalled second Russia-China pipeline gas (aka “Power of Siberia 2”)?

• On 20 April, China’s ENN, a private LNG importer, signed a 15-year LNG supply agreement for 1 million tonnes per annum with ADNOC, as part of the ongoing effort to diversify its supplier base. Will Chinese companies sign more LNG deals with non-U.S. LNG suppliers?

A message from AAPG Academy and The University of Oklahoma

Secure your spot to join AAPG Academy tomorrow, 24 April at 12pm CDT, along with experts David Curtiss and Shangyou Nie as they discuss the latest upstream market trends, and how these trends could affect the oil and gas workforce. Additionally, this webinar will feature an extended Q&A offering a chance for personalized advice—don't miss out!

Libya Holds Roadshows for First Bid Round in 18 Years

Hussein Addeb/Shutterstock.com

On 17 April, Libya’s National Oil Corp. (NOC) hosted the fourth roadshow in Istanbul, Turkey. Similar to roadshows in Tripoli, Houston, and London, it provided an opportunity for potential investors to obtain details on bidding and the country’s energy infrastructure.

Key points:

• This is one of the largest international bid rounds in recent years. Interested parties have until 5 May, 2025 to submit qualification documents.

• The bid round has 11 onshore and 11 offshore blocks for oil and gas exploration and development opportunities.

• The bid round launched on 3 March, 2025 with the first roadshow in Tripoli.

• The Houston roadshow was held on 5 March during CERAWeek, and Libya’s NOC had its roadshow in London on 7 April.

• NOC said that this bid round will have much more attractive fiscal terms than previous bid rounds.

• Specific steps taken during this fourth round include:

  • Profit sharing from day one of production

  • An accelerated payback period

  • A much higher internal rate of return

• According to local press, ENI has already openly expressed that it will participate in the 2025 licensing round.

• “We are very interested in Libya’s upcoming 2025 bid round,” said Mirko Araldi, managing director for ENI Libya. “We are always interested in recharging our portfolio,” Araldi added.

• For more details on these bid blocks, read here.

Background:

• According to NOC, Libya has more than 50 billion barrels of proven and probable oil reserves, and more than 79 trillion cubic feet of 2P gas reserves.

• Several international oil companies have exploration/development licenses in Libya.

• IOCs include ENI, TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips, OMV, Wintershall Dea, Sonatrach, and Tatneft.

What to watch:

• NOC expects new contracts to be signed by November 2025.

• The round will be a good test to see how many IOCs will actively participate, as many have said that they would refocus on oil and gas.

• Libya still has a divided government structure with considerable political and security risks.

👍 If you enjoyed this edition of Well Read, consider supporting AAPG's brand of newsletters by forwarding to a friend or colleague and signing up for our other newsletters here.

➡️ Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up for Well Read here.

✉️ To get in touch with Shangyou, send an email to editorial@aapg.org.